Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
